'US Midterm elections tend to be referendums on the unpopularity of the president'

Annette Young is pleased to welcome Michelle Swers, Professor of Government at Georgetown University. She frames the New Hampshire primary as both a major Senate contest and an unusually strong indication of the national political climate ahead of November. While Democrats face a difficult Senate map and cannot afford to surrender an open seat they already hold, the broader midterm political environment might become a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance. New Hampshire is particularly instructive because its closely divided electorate makes national political currents more visible. Swers argues that Trump’s low approval and the local economic consequences of tariffs on Canada create significant headwinds for Republicans, especially in a state whose political identity is strongly associated with resistance to taxation.

Annette Young is pleased to welcome Michelle Swers, Professor of Government at Georgetown University. She frames the New Hampshire primary as both a major Senate contest and an unusually strong indication of the national political climate ahead of November. While Democrats face a difficult Senate map and cannot afford to surrender an open seat they already hold, the broader midterm political environment might become a referendum on President Donald Trump’s performance. New Hampshire is particularly instructive because its closely divided electorate makes national political currents more visible. Swers argues that Trump’s low approval and the local economic consequences of tariffs on Canada create significant headwinds for Republicans, especially in a state whose political identity is strongly associated with resistance to taxation.